By Jim Keller
As we begin our fifth year of uncovering and examining the content that will eventually form the enigma that is the Academy Awards race, I thought it would be interesting to switch things up and break down my films of interest list by release date, festival appearance and production status. After all, outside of the pedigree attached to each film, these are the only available parameters to measure the Oscarability of each film, sight unseen. The early part of the Oscar race (from January until the Telluride Film Festival in August) is a moving target. The awards stops along the way, such as the Sundance, South by Southwest, and Cannes film festivals, can be equated to the change of seasons: their arrival is inevitable, but their impact is uncertain. This makes spit balling what may come down the slippery slope of the Oscar pike a dicey proposition. For one, a lot of the films lack distribution or have soft release dates, making it easy for studios to push their release to the following year. Second, the films discussed here haven’t been screened, so it’s impossible to know the genre they fit into. All we have to go on is the log line, the talent attached, and a little intuition. In this sense, one could say this parallels how we size up politicians, but I digress.
Last year, FYC’s Crystal Ball Edition covered only two out of eight 2016 Best Picture nominees. With that, I give you films of interest, set to debut this year, which could wind up in this year’s Oscar conversation.
Films to Compete for the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival: May 11-22
Photo Courtesy of Amazon Studios
The Neon Demon (director: Nicolas Winding Refn, status: Completed, release date: June 2016):
Why you might like it: It’s a horror/thriller about an aspiring model (Elle Fanning) who moves to Los Angeles, only to have her youth and vitality devoured by a group of beauty-obsessed women who will stop at nothing to get what she has.
Why I’ve got my eye on it: It’s the third film from the director whose first film Drive competed for the Palme in 2011 and won him the Best Director prize. While his last film Only God Forgives was a critical flop, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t learn from past mistakes. Fanning has become a prolific actress and seems well-suited for a young ingénue role.
Photo Courtesy of The Weinstein Company
Loving (director: Jeff Nichols, status: Post-production, release date: November 2016):
Why you might like it: The drama tells the true story of Richard and Mildred Loving (Joel Edgerton and Ruth Negga), an interracial couple who were sentenced to prison in Virginia in 1958 for getting married.
Why I’ve got my eye on it: After the second year of #OscarsSoWhite, there are several films cropping up this year featuring prominent roles for minorities (and even a second one about an interracial marriage, see below). This second 2016 offering from Nichols, is one such film. Given Nichols’ track record to date and the prime release date, this could be an awards player for Best Picture, Director, actor and actress.
The Last Face (director: Sean Penn, status: Completed, release date: 2016):
Why you might like it: A director of an international aid agency in Africa (Charlize Theron) meets a relief aid doctor (Javier Bardem) amidst a political/social revolution, together they face tough choices surrounding humanitarianism and life through civil unrest.
Why I’ve got my eye on it: Penn’s last film, 2007’s Into the Wild, earned high critical acclaim and went on to land a Supporting Actor nomination for Hal Holbrook. Theron and Bardem are always ones to watch: Theron won Best Actress in 2004 for Monster and was nominated again in 2006 for North Country, and Bardem was nominated for Best Actor in 2001 for Before Night Falls, he won Best Supporting Actor in 2008 for No Country for Old Men, and was last nominated for Best Actor for 2010’s Biutiful. While the two are a formidable duo, its French actress Adèle Exarchopoulos who I’m most excited to see after her remarkable turn in 2013’s Blue is the Warmest Color. As of now, the film lacks distribution and may be one of those pushed to 2017.
Films Likely to Appear at the Telluride Film Festival: September 2-5
The Birth of a Nation
The Birth of a Nation (director: Nate Parker, status: Completed, release date: October 2016):
Why you might like it: Nat Turner (Parker), a former slave in America, leads a liberation movement in 1831 to free African-Americans in Virginia, which results in a violent retaliation from whites.
Why I’ve got my eye on it: This is one of my most anticipated films of the year and the second of those featuring prominent roles for minorities. It is also directed by the African-American Parker, who stars in the film. It premiered this year at Sundance; where it won the Audience Award and Grand Jury Prize in the U.S. Dramatic Competition. Fox Searchlight Pictures bought worldwide rights to the film in a $17.5 million deal, the largest deal to be made at the fest to date. Look for this one as a Best Picture contender.
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (director: Ang Lee, status: Post-production, release date: November 2016):
Why you might like it: Based on the novel of the same name by Ben Fountain, this drama concerns infantryman Billy Lynn (newcomer Joe Alwyn) who recounts a Thanksgiving Dallas Cowboys halftime show that he and his squad members made an appearance during in the final hours before the soldiers returned to Iraq.
Why I’ve got my eye on it: Lee was nominated for Best Director in 2001 for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, and he won in 2006 for Brokeback Mountain, and in 2013 for Life of Pi, a film with a staggering visual achievement. He has confirmed that Billy Lynn will be shot 120 frames per second, the highest frame rate for a film to date. The film also features Kristen Stewart, who has been flirting with Academy recognition with stellar supporting turns in 2014’s Still Alice and Clouds of Sils Maria.